Lessons of History – 2009-03-02

Those of you who watch our program regularly likely know that we here at Naked News have a pretty good track record of prognostication.

By example we were the first News Network to call the US election for Obama -- and we did so in August. And we also called the recent Superbowl winner and the EXACT score. Yes the exact final score.

So here is our next forecast. THE US CANNOT WIN THE WAR IN AFGHANISTAN.

President Obama is talking about adding 30,000 troops to the Afghan offensive. But remember the Russians had over 100,000 troops in Afghanistan and they had to cut and run after almost 10 years of fighting.

Even with the help of the Pakistani government, the US has not been able to control the Taliban areas of Pakistan, which we all know is likely harbouring Osama Bin Laden and other Al Quaeda members for years now.

History has proven that Afghanistan is uncontrollable and ungovernable. Genghis Khan [GEN-GIS KHAN], for example, had to decimate the population of Afghanistan in order to subdue them.

In addition, Afghanistan is the largest supplier of opium in the world and that has not changed despite all of the fighting with the Russians and now with the West. A country built around illicit drugs as its major cash crop is built around the flow of money and the corruption that that brings.

Add to this that Afghanis are an extremely tribal and factious society who are ruled by local warlords and who’s livelihood depends not on a national government, but on their tribal ties and you will conclude that trying to govern and control this place, as a nation state, is really not attainable without some unifying, larger-than-life personality. No such personality has appeared and current Afghani President Hamid Karzai is certainly not that personality.

We regrettably predict that US will not succeed in its efforts to defeat the Taliban and bring democracy to Afghanistan.

Unlike the SuperBowl, we really, really hope we are wrong.