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Iran Retaliation Monday April 29, 2013

IRAN RETALIATION

I have been thinking about the Iran situation and it finally dawned on me what I suspect Iran's leadership is thinking.

Iran wants to destroy Israel - that's a given. But I don't believe it will strike first. That would result in dangerous repercussions from the rest of the world.

Additionally, their Supreme Leader, the Ayatollah, has clearly stated that nuclear weapons are not within the spirit of Islam. And the Ayatollah's words are not taken lightly.

But, suppose that Iran's nuclear facilities were attacked preemptively by Israel and/or the US. In that case, who could blame Iran, the victim, for accusing both Israel and the US of conspiring on the attack? And the rest of the world would be sympathetic if they chose to retaliate.

That, I suspect, is Iran's game plan. It's win-win for them, in just a few easy steps.

First, develop nuclear weapons. Second, be loud and clear that you are a threat to Israel's very existence, so that Israel will attack your facilities. Third, rebuild your facilities with the clear intent of giving as good as you got - and more.

Isolating Iran internationally is a good idea. Keep them isolated. But no one will say Iran started a war if Iran is attacked first. No one will say Iran isn't entitled to retaliate against those that attacked it first.

Even some Israelis and many Americans will see the logic in that, and other Muslim states will certainly concur.

So it's important not to fall into Tehran's well-conceived plan. If you think an isolated Iran is dangerous, just imagine one that has the backing of the UN General Assembly and most member nations.

Now that would be a power to be reckoned with.