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Iran What Will Happen Monday January 30, 2012

IRAN What Will Happen

The situation between the West and Iran is complicated. The West wants Iran to give up its development of nuclear weapons. Iran wants to complete its development of nuclear weapons in order to take what it believes is its rightful place as lead power in the Middle East.

In order to stop Irans development the US is imposing sanctions on Iran that is hurting the Iranian governments revenue and is hurting the average Iranian citizen.

Iran counters by posturing to close the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, the mere threat of which is increasing the cost of oil, and therefore hurting the average American, who is already hurting from a prolonged economic recession.

So where is this going? Well, here is my assessment.

The current US administration will not launch an attack on Iran or its nuclear program, nor will it acquiesce to Israel doing so.

Iran will not close the Strait of Hormuz nor do anything to start a real war with the US. Iran does not want any genuine confrontation BEFORE it develops nuclear weapons, the completion of which will make it much more dangerous to the US and a much more important player in world affairs.

Iran will seek to drain US resources and its allies. I believe it will instigate new actions by Hezbollah against Israel and anywhere else it sees an opportunity to foment unrest. It will try to do what it can to keep oil prices artificially high to hurt the US economy. As long as Americas economy is bad it will have no appetite for another foreign war.

Iran, as part of its Islamic believes, desire for Middle East dominance and its fear of democracy, will play an even greater role in Iraq and exert even more pressure to turn it into a Shiite Islamic Republic and will help the Taliban retake Afghanistan now that the Americans are leaving. Just a the Soviet Union was democracys opposite number during the Cold War, that position will now go to Iran.In my opinion Iran is both a short term threat to world peace and a long term threat to world stability. While most Iranians are reasonable, non-fanatical people, its leadership is just the opposite. The only hope for a peaceful resolution is for the current leadership of Iran to disappear - and that is not likely to happen.

So there will be no war with Iran in the very near future and there will be no closing of the Strait of Hormuz. But there will be heightened Middle East tensions driven by Iran.