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Israel Iran and Obama Monday April 16, 2012

Israel, Iran and Obama

I dont believe Israel will attack Irans nuclear facilities. I do think the Israelis are very astute in what they do to protect their nation.

If Israel was really planning an attack against the Iranians, would they talk it up and put the Iranians on high alert?

The Israelis did not advertise their attack on the Iraqi nuclear facility in 1981. They did not talk up their destruction of the Syrian reactor in 2007. They did not verbally promote the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists, nor the development and implementation of a very sophisticated computer virus to damage the Iranian centrifuges. Not only has Israel not advertised these actions in advance, they have never admitted their involvement after the fact.

Israel knows that its chances of successfully get its planes to Iran and back, are slim. Its chances of seriously damaging the Iranian nuclear facilities even slimmer. And the chances that Iran wont rebuild, even slimmer than that.

But the chances of an Iranian retaliation against Israel, and against the United States, I am sure have been calculated at extremely likely.

So what is Israels motive? I believe Israel and the US are co-operating and have formulated the following plan. Israel postures that it will attack Iran, which could lead to an all out war in the Middle East with the US coming to Israels aid and Russia coming to Irans and voila, World War III at best and Armageddon at worst. Meanwhile the US approaches other nations and says, look the only way we can convince Israel from going ahead with this attack on Iran is to impose genuinely tough sanctions. You dont want Israel to start a war in the Middle East as it will have devastating worldwide ramifications. So join the sanction program and lets put enough pressure on Iran to force them to either agree to stop their nuclear program, or force a change of government inside Iran.

Netanyahu beating his war drums, appears as a Hawk to his constituency. President Obama appearing to hold back Netanyahu comes across as a cool and rational mind to his constituency and wins re-electing in 2012.

Let me know if you agree with my analysis of this situation, or send me your thoughts.